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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for California Center for Population Research
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20181107T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20181107T133000
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LAST-MODIFIED:20190123T195523Z
UID:10000519-1541592000-1541597400@ccpr.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Chad Hazlett\, UCLA
DESCRIPTION:Title:  Making Sense of Sensitivity: Extending Omitted Variable Bias \nAbstract:We extend the omitted variable bias framework with a suite of tools for sensitivity analysis in regression models that: (i) does not require assumptions about the treatment assignment nor the nature of confounders; (ii) naturally handles multiple confounders\, possibly acting non-linearly; (iii) exploits expert knowledge to bound sensitivity parameters; and\, (iv) can be easily computed using only standard regression results. In particular\, we introduce two novel sensitivity measures suited for routine reporting. The robustness value describes the minimum strength of association unobserved confounding would need to have\, both with the treatment and the outcome\, to change the research conclusions. The partial R2 of the treatment with the outcome shows how strongly confounders explaining all the residual outcome variation would have to be associated with the treatment to eliminate the estimated effect. Next\, we offer graphical tools for elaborating on problematic confounders\, examining the sensitivity of point estimates\, t-values\, as well as “extreme scenarios”. Finally\, we describe problems with a common “benchmarking” practice and introduce a novel procedure to instead formally bound the strength of confounders based on comparison to observed covariates. We apply these methods to a running example that estimates the effect of exposure to violence on attitudes toward peace. \nPodcast Recording  \nMore info on Chad Hazlett
URL:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/event/chad-hazlett-ucla/
LOCATION:4240 Public Affairs Bldg
CATEGORIES:CCPR Seminar,Divisional Publish
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/hazlett2.jpg
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20181114T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20181114T133000
DTSTAMP:20260724T010454
CREATED:20180828T003331Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20210424T023141Z
UID:10000630-1542196800-1542202200@ccpr.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Adrian Raftery\, University of Washington
DESCRIPTION:Title: Bayesian Population Projections with Migration Uncertainty \nAbstract: The United Nations recently issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries for the first time\, using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework developed by our group at the University of Washington. These take account of uncertainty about future fertility and mortality\, but not international migration. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries\, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the UN’s current method for projecting migration\, and also to a state of the art gravity model. We also resolve an apparently paradoxical discrepancy between growth trends in the proportion of the world population migrating and the average absolute migration rate across countries. This is joint work with Jonathan Azose and Hana Ševčíková. \nCo-sponsored with the Center for Social Statistics \nMore on Prof. Raftery
URL:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/event/adrian-raftery-university-of-washington/
LOCATION:CCPR Seminar Room\, 4240 Public Affairs Building\, Los Angeles\, CA\, 90095\, United States
CATEGORIES:CCPR Seminar,CSS Events,Divisional Publish
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Raftery_Adrian.jpeg
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DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20181128T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20181128T133000
DTSTAMP:20260724T010454
CREATED:20180828T003754Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181008T175609Z
UID:10000631-1543406400-1543411800@ccpr.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Michael Clemens\, Center for Global Development
DESCRIPTION:Title: Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion \nAbstract: An important class of active labor market policy has received little impact evaluation: immigration barriers intended to raise wages and employment by shrinking labor supply. Theories of endogenous technical advance raise the possibility of limited or even perverse impact. We study a natural policy experiment: the exclusion of almost half a million Mexican bracero farm workers from the United States to improve farm labor market conditions. With novel labor market data we measure state-level exposure to exclusion and model the absent changes in technology or crop mix. We fail to reject zero labor market impact\, inconsistent with this model. \n*Co-sponsored with the Public Policy and Applied Social Sciences Seminar \nMore on Prof. Clemens 
URL:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/event/michael-clemens-center-for-global-development/
LOCATION:CCPR Seminar Room\, 4240 Public Affairs Building\, Los Angeles\, CA\, 90095\, United States
CATEGORIES:CCPR Seminar,Divisional Publish
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Clemens_Michael.jpg
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