BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//California Center for Population Research - ECPv6.15.14//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://ccpr.ucla.edu
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for California Center for Population Research
REFRESH-INTERVAL;VALUE=DURATION:PT1H
X-Robots-Tag:noindex
X-PUBLISHED-TTL:PT1H
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:America/Los_Angeles
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0800
TZOFFSETTO:-0700
TZNAME:PDT
DTSTART:20170312T100000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0700
TZOFFSETTO:-0800
TZNAME:PST
DTSTART:20171105T090000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0800
TZOFFSETTO:-0700
TZNAME:PDT
DTSTART:20180311T100000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0700
TZOFFSETTO:-0800
TZNAME:PST
DTSTART:20181104T090000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0800
TZOFFSETTO:-0700
TZNAME:PDT
DTSTART:20190310T100000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0700
TZOFFSETTO:-0800
TZNAME:PST
DTSTART:20191103T090000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20181114T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20181114T133000
DTSTAMP:20260724T020325
CREATED:20180828T003331Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20210424T023141Z
UID:10000630-1542196800-1542202200@ccpr.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Adrian Raftery\, University of Washington
DESCRIPTION:Title: Bayesian Population Projections with Migration Uncertainty \nAbstract: The United Nations recently issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries for the first time\, using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework developed by our group at the University of Washington. These take account of uncertainty about future fertility and mortality\, but not international migration. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries\, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the UN’s current method for projecting migration\, and also to a state of the art gravity model. We also resolve an apparently paradoxical discrepancy between growth trends in the proportion of the world population migrating and the average absolute migration rate across countries. This is joint work with Jonathan Azose and Hana Ševčíková. \nCo-sponsored with the Center for Social Statistics \nMore on Prof. Raftery
URL:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/event/adrian-raftery-university-of-washington/
LOCATION:CCPR Seminar Room\, 4240 Public Affairs Building\, Los Angeles\, CA\, 90095\, United States
CATEGORIES:CCPR Seminar,CSS Events,Divisional Publish
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=image/jpeg:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Raftery_Adrian.jpeg
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR