California Center for Population Research

Rob Warren, University of Minnesota
2018-01-24 12:00 - 13:30 (America/Los_Angeles) | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“When Should Researchers Use Inferential Statistics When Analyzing Data on Full Populations?“
Abstract: Many researchers uncritically use inferential statistical procedures (e.g., hypothesis tests) when analyzing complete population data—a situation in which inference may seem unnecessary. We begin by reviewing and analyzing the most common rationales for employing inferential procedures when analyzing full population data. Two common rationales—having to do with handling missing data and generalizing results to other times and/or places—either lack merit or amount to analyzing sample (not population) data. Whether it is appropriate to use inferential procedures depends on whether researchers are analyzing sample or population data and on whether they seek to make causal or descriptive claims. When doing descriptive research, the distinction between sample and population data is paramount: Inferential statistics should only be used to analyze sample data (to account for sampling variability) and never to analyze population data. When doing causal research, the distinction between sample data and population data is unimportant: Inferential procedures can and should always be used to distinguish (for example) robust associations from those that may have come about by chance alone. Crucially, using inferential procedures to analyze population data to make descriptive claims can lead to incorrect substantive conclusions—especially when population sizes and/or effect sizes are small.
*Co-sponsored with the Center for Social Statistics
More on Prof. Warren
Access Podcast here

Chenoa Flippen, University of Pennsylvania
2018-01-19 12:00 - 13:30 | Bunche 10383
“The Uphill Climb: A Transnational Perspective on Wealth Accumulation among Latino Immigrants in Durham, NC”
Abstract: Wealth accumulation is a key dimension of ethno-racial stratification, and, among immigrants, an important indicator of incorporation. Dramatically low assets among immigrant Latinos is thus a pressing concern, necessitating a better understanding of the social forces that shape wealth assimilation. Drawing on a survey of Latino immigrants in Durham, NC, I argue for the importance of a transnational perspective on wealth for immigrant populations. Nationally representative surveys designed to assess inequality among the general population generally lack information on wealth held abroad, which accounts for the lion’s share of assets held by immigrants in our sample. Likewise, these data sources rarely have information on factors salient to immigrants, particularly legal status and informal employment. Finally, I show that the socio-demographic characteristics central to life-cycle wealth models operate in different ways for U.S. and foreign assets, and for men and women. For instance, while household earnings and duration of Durham residence are associated with greater U.S. assets among Durham’s Latino migrants, they fail to predict wealth held abroad. Likewise, low educational attainment and informal employment are associated with lower U.S., but not foreign, wealth. Instead, the key predictors of wealth abroad relate to family structure. I further document structural barriers to immigrant Latino wealth accumulation, such as employment marginality and lack of access to mainstream financial institutions.
*Co-Sponsored with the Center for the Study of International Migration
More on Prof. Flippen

Diversion in the Criminal Justice System: Regression Discontinuity Evidence on Court Deferrals: Kevin Schnepel, University of Sydney, School of Economics
2018-01-18 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
Kevin Schnepel, University of Sydney, School of Economics
The historically unprecedented size of the U.S. criminal justice system has necessitated the development of diversion programs to reduce caseloads as a cost containment strategy. Court deferrals, which allow felony defendants to avoid formal convictions through probation, are one example. Using two discontinuities in deferral rates in Harris County, Texas, separated by 13 years, we find consistent evidence that diversion reduces reoffending and unemployment among first-time felony defendants. Similar benefits are not observed for repeat offenders suggesting felony record stigma as a key mechanism. Young, African American men drive the total effect, a pattern consistent with over-targeting by law enforcement.

Doug Massey, Princeton University
2018-01-10 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“Train Wreck: US Immigration and Border Policy 1965-2010”
Abstract: Despite the massive increase in border enforcement after 1986, undocumented population growth did not decrease, but rose. In this talk I undertake a systematic analysis of border enforcement as a policy for immigration control. Empirical results explain not only why it failed, but how and why it backfired. In the end, the militarization of the border did not increase the probability of apprehension at the border or reduce the likelihood of unauthorized entry; but it did dramatically change the geography of border crossing, increase the costs of undocumented migration, and elevate the physical risks of border crossing. Ironically, these trends had no effect on the likelihood of undocumented departure for the United States, but instead reduced the probability undocumented returns back to Mexico, thereby increasing the net volume of undocumented migration and accelerating undocumented population growth.
Access Podcast Here
*Co-Sponsored with;
The Center for the Study of International Migration
The Social Stratification, Inequality, and Mobility Working Group
The Center for Mexican Studies
More on Prof. Massey

Nathaniel Osgood, University of Saskatchewan, "Using Smartphones and Wearables for Public Health Insight: A Hands-On Introduction"
2017-12-13 12:00 - 13:30 | CHS 61-269
Abstract: Acquisition of evidence-based understanding of human health behavior and exposure to environments forms a central focus of health research, and a critical prerequisite for effective health policy. The use of mobile devices to study health behavior via cross-linked sensor data and on-device self-reporting and crowdsourcing offer compelling advantages to complement traditional techniques. Data collected on such devices can be particularly powerful in supporting understanding of health behaviors in areas where accurate self-reporting is difficult, including nutritional intake, physical activity and sedentary behaviour, and exposures to physical and social environments. Through structured surveys and crowdsourcing mechanisms, such devices can further provide potent means of gaining insight into knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions in health areas. Finally, while little explored, some of the most powerful uses of such day lie in terms of understanding the particular causal pathways impacted by interventions. This hands-on talk will provide public health researchers and practitioners with a high-level introduction to the motivation, state-of-the-art in and tools for use of mobile data collection in public health. Topics touched on include elements of motivation, study design, behavioral ethics concerns and needs, data collection systems requiring low technical involvement, and analysis. Participants will be invited to experience a state-of-the-art and widely used mobile data collection system during the talk that illustrates many of the principles discussed.
Sponsored by The Department of Community Health Sciences along with the Center for Social Statistics and the California Center for Population Research

Nathaniel Osgood, University of Saskatchewan, "Dynamic modeling for health in the age of big data"
2017-12-12 14:00 - 15:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
Abstract: Traditional approaches to public health concerns have conferred great advances in the duration and quality of life. Public health interventions – from improved sanitation efforts, to vaccination campaigns, to contact tracing and environmental regulations – have helped reduce common risks to health throughout many areas of the world. Unfortunately, while traditional methods from the health sciences have proven admirably suited for addressing traditional challenges, a troubling crop of complex health challenges confront the nation and the world, and threaten to stop – and even reverse the – rise in length and quality of life that many have taken for granted. Examples include multi-factorial problems such as obesity and obesity-related chronic disease, the spread of drug-resistant and rapidly mutating pathogens that evade control efforts, and “syndemics” of mutually reinforcing health conditions (such as Diabetes and TB; substance abuse, violence and HIV/AIDS; obesity & stress). Such challenges have proven troublingly policy resistant, with interventions being thwarted by “blowback” from the complex feedbacks involved, and attendant costs threaten to overwhelm health care systems. In the face of such challenges public health decision makers are increasingly supplementing their toolbox using “system science” techniques. Such methods – also widely known as “complex systems approaches” – provide a way to understand a system’s behavior as a whole and as more than the sum of its parts, and a means of anticipating and managing the behavior of a system in more judicious and proactive fashion. However, such approaches offer substantially greater insight and power when combined with rich data sources. Within this talk, we will highlight the great promise afforded by combining of Systems Science techniques and rich data sources, particularly emphasizing the role of cross-linking models with “big data” offering high volume, velocity, variety and veracity. Examples of such data include fine-grained temporal and spatial information collected by smartphone-based and wearable as well as building and municipal sensors, data from social media posts and search behavior, helpline calls, website accesses and rich cross-linked databases. Decision-oriented models grounded by such novel data sources can allow for articulated theory building regarding difficult-to-observe aspects of human behavior. Such models can also aid in informing evaluation of and judicious selection between sophisticated interventions to lessen the health burden of a wide variety of health conditions. Such models are particularly powerful when complemented by machine learning and computational statistics techniques that permit recurrent model regrounding in the newest evidence, and which allow a model to knit together holistic portrait of the system as a whole, and which support grounded investigation of between intervention strategies tradeoffs.
Sponsored by The Department of Community Health Sciences along with the Center for Social Statistics and the California Center for Population Research

Jessica Ho, USC
2017-11-29 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“Contemporary Trends in American Mortality: International Comparisons and Emerging Challenges”
Abstract: The decades surrounding the turn of the 21st century have been a challenging period for American mortality. The United States is currently facing a large-scale opioid epidemic, and life expectancy barely increased between 2010 and 2015. This talk will cover various dimensions of contemporary trends in American mortality including the contribution of drug overdose to educational gradients in life expectancy, an analysis of the contemporary drug overdose epidemic in international perspective, and how the U.S.’s recent life expectancy stagnation has impacted its standing in international life expectancy rankings relative to other high-income countries.
More on Prof. Ho

CCPR Grant Writing Workshop Session VII: Regulatory Sections/ NIH grant application process at UCLA
2017-11-29 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
The workshop will include an overview of human subjects/UCLA IRB preaward, data sharing plan, multiple PI plan and clinical trials, Office of Contract and Grant Administration (OCGA), S2S Grants/Cayuse, E-pass and electronic submission, eDGE disclosure, submission deadlines to OCGA, and interacting with eRA Commons.

Jennifer Skeem, UC Berkeley
2017-11-15 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“’What works’ for justice-involved people with mental illness”
Abstract: Each year, over 2 million people with serious mental illness are booked into U.S. jails. These people typically stay longer in jail than those without mental illness—and, upon release, are more likely to be reincarcerated. Today, over 300 counties have resolved to “step up” their efforts to reduce the number of people with mental illness in jail. In this presentation, I highlight research on “what works” to reduce re-offending among justice-involved people with mental illness. Programs must avoid the traditional assumption that mental illness is the direct cause of the problem, and linkage with psychiatric services is the solution. Evidence-based, cost-effective programs look beyond psychiatric explanations to address robust risk factors that are shared by people with- and without mental illness.
More on Prof. Skeem

CCPR Grant Writing Workshop Session VI: Preparing a Budget
2017-11-15 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
The workshop will include an overview of personnel time on the project, salaries and benefits, other than personnel services (OTPS), consultants, equipment, patient care, alterations and renovations, consortium/contractual costs, budget justification, direct/modified direct/indirect costs.

Hadley Wickham, RStudio
2017-11-08 15:30 - 2021-04-23 17:00
The UCLA Department of Statistics and the Center for Social Statistics presents:
Programming data science with R & the tidyverse
Tidy evaluation is a new framework for non-standard evaluation that
will be used throughout tidyverse. In this talk, I’ll introduce you to
the problem that tidy eval solves, illustrated with examples of the
various approaches used in R. I’ll then explain the most important
components so that you can start writing your own functions instead of
copying and pasting tidyr and dplyr code. I’ll finish with a small
shiny app that shows how tidy eval is a natural fit for handling user
input.
Hadley Wickham, RStudio
http://hadley.nz/

Victoria Baranov, University of Melbourne
2017-11-08 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“Mental health and women’s choices. Experimental evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. “
Abstract: We evaluate the long-term impact of treating maternal depression on women’s financial empowerment and parenting decisions by exploiting experimental variation induced by a cluster-randomized control trial which provided psychotherapy to perinatally depressed mothers in rural Pakistan. The trial, which is the largest psychotherapy trial in the world, was highly successful at reducing depression rates of mothers. We relocate mothers 6 years after the intervention concluded to evaluate the effects of the intervention on women’s financial empowerment, parental investments, fertility, as well as children development. We find that treating maternal depression increased women’s empowerment, particularly control over spending, both in the short-run and in the long-run. Consistent with the reports of increased control over spending, we find persistent effects of the intervention on both time- and monetary-intensive parental investment. We do not find any detectable effect on children development. The long-run treatment effects are concentrated among girls.
More on Prof. Baranov
Podcast Here

CCPR Grant Writing Workshop Session V
2017-11-08 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
The workshop will include an overview of approach (2), statistical analysis and power.

Rodrigo Soares, Columbia University
2017-11-01 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“Does Universalization of Health Work? Evidence from Health Systems Restructuring and Maternal and Child Health in Brazil“
Abstract: We investigate restructuring of the health system in Brazil motivated to operationalize universal health coverage. Using administrative data from multiple sources and an event study approach that exploits the staggered rollout of programmatic changes across municipalities, we find large reductions in maternal, foetal, neonatal and postneonatal mortality, and fertility. We document increased prenatal care visits, hospital births and other maternal and child hospitalization, which suggest that the survival gains were supply-driven. We find no improvement in the quality of births, which may be explained by endogenous shifts in the composition of births towards higher-risk births.
More on Prof. Soares
Podcast Here

CCPR Grant Writing Workshop Session IV
2017-11-01 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
The workshop will include an overview of significance vs. innovation and approach.

Patrick Bajari, Vice President & Chief Economist Amazon
2017-10-30 15:30 - 17:00 | Korn Convocation Hall C314
UCLA Department of Economics
Master of Applied Economics Distinguished Speaker Series

Mark Kaplan, UCLA
2017-10-25 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“Title: The Impact of Socioenvironmental Stressors on Alcohol-Linked Suicides: A Nationwide Postmortem Study”
Abstract: Not only is suicide a major public health problem, but also, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 8,179 deaths and 273,206 years of potential life lost resulted from alcohol attributable suicides in 2006-10 (the latest years available). Since 2011, Professor Kaplan and his colleagues have worked with the National Violent Death Reporting System Restricted Access Database on two projects funded by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, focusing on acute alcohol use immediately prior to suicide. This presentation will show that nearly a third of suicide decedents nationwide were intoxicated at the time of death. Furthermore, Prof. Kaplan will describe the effects of the 2008-09 economic contraction and other adverse socioenvironmental conditions on rates of suicide involving acute alcohol intoxication.
More on Prof. Kaplan

CCPR Grant Writing Workshop Session III: Writing the scientific portions with the reviewers in mind
2017-10-25 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
The workshop will include an overview of scored review criteria: Significance, investigators, innovation, approach, and environment, abstract, specific aims, biosketch/ personal statement, and environment.

Sander Greenland, UCLA Department of Epidemiology
2017-10-24 14:00 - 2021-04-23 17:00
The UCLA Department of Statistics and the Center for Social Statistics presents:
Statistical Significance and Discussion of the Challenges of Avoiding the Abuse of Statistical Methodology
Sander Greenland will offer his perspective on the paper, “Redefine Statistical Significance”, which was the topic of the previous week’s seminar. Also he will discuss the challenges of avoiding the abuse of statistical methodology.
Speaker:
Sander Greenland, Professor Emeritus, UCLA Department of Epidemiology

Workshop: Transparent Data Analysis Workflow
2017-10-20 12:00 - 14:00 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
Instructor: Michael Tzen
PLEASE BRING A PERSONAL LAPTOP
Content: Researchers go through fundamental steps in a data analysis project. This workshop highlights key steps in a data analyst’s workflow and encourages transparency in each of the steps. Throughout this workshop, we go through hands on exercises that integrate: a transparency engine, obtaining federal API data, producing useful intermediate data structures, and sharing analysis results. We will use Jupyter notebook for literate coding and if time allows demonstrate the Rstudio environment for reproducible development.
Please RSVP Here:
https://goo.gl/forms/B7hMBod78Ecau8D22

slides ipynb rmd

Tips on Giving Effective PAA Presentations, Job Talks, and the Like
2017-10-18 15:00 - 16:00 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
Tips on Giving Effective PAA Presentations, Job Talks, and the Like: a Discussion Led by Prof. Donald J. (Don) Treiman
Click here to download the presentation.

David Chae, Auburn University
2017-10-18 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“Getting Under the Skin: Socio-Psychobiological Pathways and Racial Disparities in Health.“
Abstract: Racism is physically embodied through social, behavioral, and psychobiological mechanisms. In this talk, David H. Chae, will discuss the utility of a social-ecological and developmental lens to examine how racism is biologically embedded. He will discuss his research on multiple levels of racism and the channels through which they compromise health throughout the lifecourse.
More on Prof. Chae

CCPR Grant Writing Workshop Session II: The NIH application review – What to expect? What to plan for?
2017-10-18 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
The workshop will include an overview of the review process, Center for Scientific Review, identifying a peer review “study section”, and the peer review process.

Daniel Benjamin, USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research
2017-10-17 13:00 - 14:00
The UCLA Department of Statistics and the Center for Social Statistics presents:
Redefine Statistical Significance
Daniel Benjamin will discuss his paper (written by him and 71 other authors), “Redefine Statistical Significance”. The paper proposes that the default p-value threshold should be changed from 0.05 to 0.005.
The paper is available at this link.
Speaker:
Daniel Benjamin, Associate Professor, USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research

Workshop: Useful R 4 Stata Users Brown Bag
2017-10-13 12:00 - 13:00 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
Instructor: Michael Tzen

This workshop is a brown bag forum. Participants are encouraged to bring in tangible questions they wish to explore using R. To serve as a background road map, the instructor will provide an abbreviated sample of what he thinks are the most useful features of R. However, the goal is to have participants ask questions that the collective group can figure out using R. Any R question is fair game, for example: questions about fundamental R concepts or even questions about how to run Stata-equivalent R commands. Participants will be provided access to Rstudio, so please bring a laptop.
This CCPR brown-bag is intended to be an open forum that complements the 3 great resources below. Please see the resources, especially the first one.
1) 10 minute demo: interactive call–response slideshow of R basics
http://tryr.codeschool.com/
2) Worked out examples from a UCLA IDRE workshop on R concepts
https://stats.idre.ucla.edu/r/seminars/intro/
3) R 4 Data Science e-book
http://r4ds.had.co.nz/

RVSP Here

slides

Roland Rau, University of Rostock
2017-10-11 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
“Title: The challenges of estimating mortality in small areas — using German counties as a case study”
Abstract:
We develop and analyze Bayesian models that produce good estimates of complete mortality schedules for small areas, even when the expected number of deaths is very small. The models also provide estimates of uncertainty about local mortality schedules. The TOPALS relational model is the primary building block, used to model age-specific mortality rates within each small area. TOPALS models produce estimates for single-year ages from a small number of local parameters. We experiment with Bayesian models for smoothing and ‘borrowing’ mortality information across space, using two alternative specifications. First we test a Bayesian model with conditional autoregressive (CAR) priors for TOPALS parameters. CAR priors assign higher probability to parameters that are similar across adjacent areas, thus emphasizing spatial smoothness in estimated rates. Second, we test a hierarchical Bayesian model, which assigns higher probability to parameters that are similar for locations that are close in terms of political geography.
More on Prof. Rau
Podcast Here

CCPR Grant Writing Workshop Session I: Planning an NIH grant proposal
2017-10-11 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
Grant Writing Workshop Series:
The workshop will include an overview of the basics, including NIH funding mechanisms, types of grant programs (we will focus on the R series with some discussion of K series), finding a funding opportunity (FOA): Parent Announcements, Program Announcements (PAs) vs. Request for Applications (RFAs) Administrative and other supplements Roles on a grant (PI, Co-PI, Co-Investigator, others), the process of preparing NIH proposals, identifying NIH institute (NIH matchmaker), working with NIH staff, due dates and the application to funding timeline, applications & resubmissions.

2017-2018 CCPR Welcome and Introductions
2017-10-04 12:00 - 13:30 | CCPR Seminar Room, 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, United States
Please come join us to learn all about the California Center for Population Research!
Professors Judith Seltzer, Till von Wachter, and Jennie Brand will be presenting.
This will be the kick-off event for the start of the upcoming 2017-2018 CCPR Seminar Series.

2017 Federal Statistical Research Data Center Annual Conference
2017-09-13 08:00 - 2017-09-14 17:00 | 4240 Public Affairs Bldg
The California Census Research Data Center (CCRDC) at University of California Los Angeles invites proposals to present papers and posters at the 2017 Federal Statistical Research Data Center Annual Conference. We also will consider proposals for workshops and panel discussions.

James Robins, Harvard University
2017-06-09 12:00 - 13:00 | Room 33-105 CHS Building, 650 Charles E Young Drive South, Los Angeles, CA, 90095 , United States
The UCLA Departments of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Statistics and the Center for Social Statistics presents:
Causal Methods in Epidemiology: Where has it got us and what can we expect in the future?
The principal focus of Dr. Robins’ research has been the development of analytic methods appropriate for drawing causal inferences from complex observational and randomized studies with time-varying exposures or treatments. The new methods are to a large extent based on the estimation of the parameters of a new class of causal models – the structural nested models – using a new class of estimators – the G estimators.
Please RSVP: https://goo.gl/wScewQ
Speaker:
James Robins, Mitchell L. and Robin LaFoley Dong Professor of Epidemiology, Harvard University
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/james-robins/
