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DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20260218T120000
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SUMMARY:Amy Finkelstein\, MIT\, "Trading Goods for Lives: The Effect of NAFTA on Mortality"
DESCRIPTION:  \n(with Matthew Notowidigdo and Steven Shi) \nBiography: Amy Finkelstein is the John & Jennie S. MacDonald Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She is the co-founder and co-Scientific Director of J-PAL North America\, a research center at MIT that encourages and facilitates randomized evaluations of important domestic policy issues. She is also the co-Director of the Economics of Health Program at the National Bureau of Economic Research and was the founding Editor of American Economic Review: Insights. \nTrading Goods for Lives: The Effect of NAFTA on Mortality\nwith Matthew Notowidigdo and Steven Shi \nAbstract:  We leverage spatial variation in exposure to the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to examine its impact on mortality and explore quantitative implications for the welfare effects of NAFTA. Areas more exposed to Mexican import competition by NAFTA experienced larger increases in mortality. In the 14 years post-NAFTA\, an area with average NAFTA exposure experienced an increase in annual\, age adjusted mortality of 0.68 percent (standard error = 0.19). NAFTA-induced mortality increases are particularly pronounced among working-age men\, a demographic that also experienced disproportionate NAFTA-induced employment declines. Comparisons with the mortality effects of other economic contractions suggest that\, unlike declines in the non-manufacturing employment-to-population (EPOP) ratio which reduce mortality\, declines in manufacturing EPOP consistently increase mortality.
URL:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/event/amy-finkelstein-mit-ucla/
LOCATION:Room 4240A\, 4th Floor\, Public Affairs Building\, 337 Charles Young Dr.\, LA\, CA 90095
CATEGORIES:CCPR Seminar
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251112T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251112T131500
DTSTAMP:20260427T071712
CREATED:20250805T180415Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250929T212930Z
UID:10000937-1762948800-1762953300@ccpr.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Manasi Deshpande\, The University of Chicago\, "Explaining the Historical Rise and Recent Decline in Social Security Disability Insurance Enrollment"
DESCRIPTION:Biography:  Manasi Deshpande is an associate professor of economics with tenure at the University of Chicago Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics and a faculty research fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Her research interests include the optimal design of social safety net programs\, their interaction with labor markets\, and their effects on consumption\, health\, and well-being. She has received the Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship\, NSF CAREER award\, and William T. Grant Scholarship. Her dissertation on the long-term effects of disability programs received the 2015 APPAM Dissertation Award\, the 2015 Upjohn Institute Dissertation Award\, and the 2016 NASI John Heinz Dissertation Award. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was previously a postdoctoral fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Becker-Friedman Institute.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nExplaining the Historical Rise and Recent Decline in Social Security Disability Insurance Enrollment\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAbstract: After substantial growth in the 1990s and 2000s\, enrollment in the U.S. Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) program has been declining since 2013. We use detailed administrative data to quantify the contributions of various factors to trends in SSDI enrollment\, focusing especially on the decline in the 2010s. A statistical decomposition suggests that the vast majority of the decline in SSDI enrollment since 2013 is attributable to declines in application rates and\, to a lesser extent\, award rates\, within demographic groups\, rather than changes over time in demographic characteristics\, eligibility\, or rates of exit from SSDI. The decline in SSDI enrollment rates is disproportionately driven by older low-to-middle-skilled men with relatively severe health conditions who\, over time\, have become less likely to apply for SSDI and more likely to work. Consistent with this descriptive evidence\, we present results from a causal analysis suggesting that improved labor market opportunities for older middle-skilled men could explain the decline in SSDI enrollment. We also present a set of causal estimates that rule out several popular hypotheses for the decline in SSDI applications\, including lower award rates at the appeal level\, a higher administrative burden of applying\, greater generosity of other programs\, and reductions in pollution and smoking.
URL:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/event/manasi-deshpande-the-university-of-chicago-tbd/
LOCATION:Room 4240A\, 4th Floor\, Public Affairs Building\, 337 Charles Young Dr.\, LA\, CA 90095
CATEGORIES:CCPR Seminar
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251022T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251022T131500
DTSTAMP:20260427T071712
CREATED:20250805T180013Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20250926T164830Z
UID:10000935-1761134400-1761138900@ccpr.ucla.edu
SUMMARY:Marco Tabellini\, Harvard Business School\, Climate Matching in Migration: From the American Frontier to Prehistory
DESCRIPTION:Biography: Marco Tabellini is an assistant professor in the Business\, Government\, and International Economy unit and is affiliated with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)\, the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)\, RF Berlin\, and IZA. He explores how international and internal migration reshapes politics\, societies\, and the economy. His work investigates when and why immigration stirs political backlash\, what drives successful social integration\, and how migration alters societal boundaries in diverse countries such as the United States. He also examines the economic consequences of immigration\, including its effects on labor markets and growth. Finally\, his research sheds light on the role of climate as a powerful force shaping migration flows across time and place. \n  \nClimate Matching in Migration: From the American Frontier to Prehistory\nAbstract: We examine how climate shapes human migration across both modern history and deep prehistory. Drawing on rich U.S. census and administrative data\, we show that migrants systematically sort into destinations whose climates resemble those of their origins\, a pattern we term climate matching. This pattern holds for both international and internal migration\, across historical (1850–1920) and modern (1970–2020) periods\, and played a central role in shaping the geography of U.S. settlement\, population growth\, and economic activity. We then push these ideas back into prehistory\, using ancient DNA to trace related individuals buried hundreds or thousands of kilometers apart. Linking these inferred migration flows to paleoclimate reconstructions reveals that even prehistoric populations tended to move along ecological corridors and into familiar climatic zones.
URL:https://ccpr.ucla.edu/event/marco-tabellini-harvard-business-school-tbd/
LOCATION:Room 4240A\, 4th Floor\, Public Affairs Building\, 337 Charles Young Dr.\, LA\, CA 90095
CATEGORIES:CCPR Seminar
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