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FP3.0: Increasing the uptake of Long-Acting Reversible Contraceptives (LARCs) among adolescent females and young women in Cameroon
In sub-Saharan Africa, 25% of teenagers have started childbearing (ICF, 2015). While young women describe many of these births as planned and intentional, women under the age of 20 also have the greatest percentage of mistimed/unintended pregnancies compared to all other age groups. For example, in Cameroon, more than 30% of the births to this group were unwanted or wanted later (DHS 2011). Low age at first birth has a significant impact on the spacing of births and timing of future pregnancies. It may also reduce accumulation of human capital for both the mother and the child.
Co-sponsored with the UCLA Luskin Senior Fellows Speaker SeriesFind out more »
Instructor: Michael Tzen Title: Getting your Computational Tools for Research Location: October 25, 2018, 2:00-3:00 PM 4240 Public Affairs Building CCPR Seminar Room Content: We'll get you started on Github, Rstudio, Stata, and accessing Hoffman2 (UCLA's high performance computing cluster). Please RSVP below https://goo.gl/forms/W6hkM3bnOjfnYGJw2Find out more »
Social Science in the Age of Genomics
The cost of genetic information has been dropping at a rate faster than that of Moore's law in microcomputing. As a result, the science of genetic prediction has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years, and with it has emerged a novel field: sociogenomics. Sociogenomics seeks to integrate genetic and environmental information to obtain a more robust, complete picture of the causes of human behavior. This talk will highlight some recent examples of sociogenomic research, touching upon issues such as adolescent peer effects, racial discrimination, assortative mating, and fertility patterns. The talk will conclude by discussing the social and policy implications of genetic prediction.
Co-sponsored with the Public Policy and Applied Social Science Seminar SeriesFind out more »
Bayesian Population Projections with Migration Uncertainty
The United Nations recently issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries for the first time, using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework developed by our group at the University of Washington. These take account of uncertainty about future fertility and mortality, but not international migration. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical autoregressive model for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the UN's current method for projecting migration, and also to a state of the art gravity model. We also resolve an apparently paradoxical discrepancy between growth trends in the proportion of the world population migrating and the average absolute migration rate across countries. This is joint work with Jonathan Azose and Hana Ševčíková.
Co-sponsored with the Center for Social StatisticsFind out more »
Instructor: Michael Tzen Title: Practical Survey Analysis Location: November 15, 2018, 2:00-3:00 PM 4240 Public Affairs Building CCPR Seminar Room Content: We'll walk thru key steps of a data analysis involving a complex survey design. Please RSVP below https://goo.gl/forms/evIP7G8PN0UBG7x72Find out more »
Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion
An important class of active labor market policy has received little impact evaluation: immigration barriers intended to raise wages and employment by shrinking labor supply. Theories of endogenous technical advance raise the possibility of limited or even perverse impact. We study a natural policy experiment: the exclusion of almost half a million Mexican bracero farm workers from the United States to improve farm labor market conditions. With novel labor market data we measure state-level exposure to exclusion and model the absent changes in technology or crop mix. We fail to reject zero labor market impact, inconsistent with this model.
Co-sponsored with the Public Policy and Applied Social Sciences SeminarFind out more »