Kosuke Imai, Harvard University

CCPR Seminar Room 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Matching Methods for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Section Data

Matching methods aim to improve the validity of causal inference in observational studies by reducing model dependence and offering intuitive diagnostics. While they have become a part of standard tool kit for empirical researchers across disciplines, matching methods are rarely used when analyzing time-series cross-section (TSCS) data, which consist of a relatively large number of repeated measurements on the same units.

We develop a methodological framework that enables the application of matching methods to TSCS data. In the proposed approach, we first match each treated observation with control observations from other units in the same time period that have an identical treatment history up to the pre-specified number of lags. We use standard matching and weighting methods to further refine this matched set so that the treated observation has outcome and covariate histories similar to those of its matched control observations. Assessing the quality of matches is done by examining covariate balance. After the refinement, we estimate both short-term and long-term average treatment effects using the difference-in-differences estimator, accounting for a time trend. We also show that the proposed matching estimator can be written as a weighted linear regression estimator with unit and time fixed effects, providing model-based standard errors. We illustrate the proposed methodology by estimating the causal effects of democracy on economic growth, as well as the impact of inter-state war on inheritance tax. The open-source software is available for implementing the proposed matching methods.

Co-sponsored with the Political Science Department, Statistics Department and the Center for Social Statistics

Lars Vilhuber, Cornell University

4240 Public Affairs Bldg

"Replication and Reproducibility in Social Sciences and Statistics: Context, Concerns, and Concrete Measures"

Ushma Upadhyay, UC San Francisco

CCPR Seminar Room 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Measuring Reproductive Autonomy: Are the questions different for Adolescents and Young Adults?

Ushma Upadhyay, PhD, MPH will discuss her previous work developing the Reproductive Autonomy Scale, which has been mainly used among adults. Her current work focuses on understanding reproductive empowerment among young people, and the development of a new psychometric measure of Sexual Health and Reproductive Empowerment for Young Adults (The SHREYA Scale).

Co-sponsored with The Bixby Center 

Workshop: Merging Entities – Deterministic, Approximate, & Probabilistic

4240 Public Affairs Bldg

Instructor: Michael Tzen Title: Merging Entities: Deterministic, Approximate, & Probabilistic Location: January 31, 2019, 2:00-3:00 PM 4240 Public Affairs Building CCPR Seminar Room Content: Combining information from different groups is a fundamental procedure in the data analysis pipeline. Using NBA and NCAA data, we will walk through deterministic, approximate, and probabilistic methods to merge entities […]

Binational workshop on planning in Mexico and California

4240 Public Affairs Bldg

Organizer: Paavo Monkkonen February 8, 2019 4240 Public Affairs Building The Luskin Latin American Cities Initiative ( https://ciudades.luskin.ucla.edu/ ) is hosting a workshop on urban planning this Friday, February 8th from 10:00am to 2:00pm. The main objective of the workshop is to compare the roles of Federal and State entities in local planning efforts both […]

Peter Bearman, Columbia University

CCPR Seminar Room 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Neural mechanisms lie behind the emergence of dyadic affective reciprocity and transitive closure in human groups

This talk considers a set of findings from socializing cognitive social neuroscience that captures neural and social network data at multiple time points for a group of students who volunteered to organize workers in very difficult social situations on the 50th anniversary of Freedom Summer, in the Summer of Respect project. We identify a neural mechanism for the emergence of affective reciprocity, the building block of social solidarity. We show that we can predict from neural signatures who group members will like five months in the future. We extend this work to a discussion of transitivity, or balance. Time permitting, we discuss how a neural signature of self-enhancement (narcissism) predicts becoming peripheral in small groups, supporting the idea that there is "no I in team".

Co-sponsored by the Sociology Department

Workshop: Tips for Success in Publishing in Peer Review Journals: An Editor’s Perspective

4240 Public Affairs Bldg

Workshop: Tips for Success in Publishing in Peer Review Journals: An Editor's Perspective Presentation by Prof. Gilbert Gee Prof. Gee Dr. Gee is currently the Editor of the Journal of Health and Social Behavior.  He has also been a guest editor for Child Development, Asian American and Pacific Islander Nexus Journal, and the Asian American Journal of Psychology.  

Jan Van Bavel, University of Leuven

CCPR Seminar Room 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, United States

The Reversal of the Gender Gap in Education and Family Dynamics in Europe

Although men tended to receive more education than women in the past, the gender gap in education has reversed in recent decades in most Western and many non-Western countries. In this talk, I will discuss the main results of a major research project that aimed to investigate the implications of the reversal of the gender gap in advanced education for family life across European countries. I highlight the results about union formation and assortative mating, discuss our findings about union stability as well as about husbands’ and wives’ relative earnings. Finally, I present some first results from research about implications for fertility behavior. To conclude, I will reflect on implications for conventional theories used in family sociology and demography.

The Second Sexual & Gender Minority Research Workshop

UCLA Faculty Center

Organizer: Ilan Meyer February 22, 2019 UCLA Faculty Center The target audience for the Workshop is students, post-docs, and early investigators. Participants will learn about the NIH structure and grant processes, meet NIH Program Officers and extramural researchers who have been successful at obtaining NIH funding, and network with others interested in SGM-related health research.

Adeline Lo, Princeton University

1434A Physics and Astronomy Building

Covariate screening in high dimensional data: applications to forecasting and text data

High dimensional (HD) data, where the number of covariates and/or meaningful covariate interactions might exceed the number of observations, is increasing used in prediction in the social sciences. An important question for the researcher is how to select the most predictive covariates among all the available covariates. Common covariate selection approaches use ad hoc rules to remove noise covariates, or select covariates through the criterion of statistical significance or by using machine learning techniques. These can suffer from lack of objectivity, choosing some but not all predictive covariates, and failing reasonable standards of consistency that are expected to hold in most high-dimensional social science data. The literature is scarce in statistics that can be used to directly evaluate covariate predictivity. We address these issues by proposing a variable screening step prior to traditional statistical modeling, in which we screen covariates for their predictivity. We propose the influence (I) statistic to evaluate covariates in the screening stage, showing that the statistic is directly related to predictivity and can help screen out noisy covariates and discover meaningful covariate interactions. We illustrate how our screening approach can removing noisy phrases from U.S. Congressional speeches and rank important ones to measure partisanship. We also show improvements to out-of-sample forecasting in a state failure application. Our approach is applicable via an open-source software package.

Fernando Riosmena, CU Boulder

CCPR Seminar Room 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Individual and Neighborhood Vulnerability over the Latin American Immigrant Health Experience

The state of Latino health seemingly defies the way in which the historical disadvantages faced by people of color in the United States get under the skin, and how place matters in reflecting or further reproducing these disparities. Hispanics –especially foreign-born individuals with lower socioeconomic statuses– have more favorable health than other race/ethnic groups –notably, U.S.-born non-Hispanic whites– in a limited but very important set of health outcomes such as cardiovascular function, some cancers and mortality across much of the life course.

In this talk, I discuss the mechanisms/phenomena driving the Hispanic immigrant health advantage, which is likely tied to processes of self-selection as well as to protection and resilience likely operating particularly well in heavily-concentrated Latino neighborhoods and enclaves. Throughout, I present my empirical research aimed at disentangling self-selection processes from the protection that immigrants might draw from fellow neighborhood and/or community members. I further discuss these findings in the context of how immigrants adapt in the longer term: these advantages and resilience eventually erode as immigrants spend more time in the United States –as well as across immigrant generations– through a series of processes by which immigrant and Latino vulnerability become somatized.

I conclude by speculating on the likely future of Latino and immigrant health, discussing how the resilience and vulnerability of Latino immigrants might evolve given recent major shifts U.S. immigration and social policies and practices, and due to important changes in the dynamics of migration between Mesoamerica and the United States.

Workshop: Grad Student Panel Discussing the Causal Toolkit

4240 Public Affairs Bldg

Title: Grad Student Panel Discussing the Causal Toolkit Location: February 27, 2019, 2:00-3:30 PM 4240 Public Affairs Building CCPR Seminar Room Content: Focusing on the uses of the causal toolkit, several grad students will share a-ha moments and lessons learned from their own applied research. The target audience are grad students and researchers who wish […]

Lan Liu, University of Minnesota at Twin Cities

Lan Liu, University of Minnesota at Twin Cities "Parsimonious Regressions for Repeated Measure Analysis"  Abstract: Longitudinal data with repeated measures frequently arises in various disciplines. The standard methods typically impose a mean outcome model as a function of individual features, time and their interactions. However, the validity of the estimators relies on the correct specifications […]

Andres Villarreal, University of Maryland

Immigrants’ Economic Assimilation: Evidence from Matched Administrative Records

Immigrants’ ability to succeed in the labor market and achieve economic parity with natives has significant long-term implications for their well-being and that of their children. In this talk I will present findings from two studies examining immigrants’ economic assimilation using a dataset that links respondents of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to their individual tax records. The first study examines the lifetime earnings trajectories of immigrants and measures the extent and speed with which they are able to reduce the earnings gap with natives. Findings from this study address key debates regarding ethnoracial and cohort differences in immigrants’ earnings trajectories. First, we find a racially differentiated pattern of earnings assimilation: black and Hispanic immigrants are less able to catch up with native whites’ earnings compared to white and Asian immigrants, but they are almost able to reach earnings parity with natives of their same race and ethnicity. Second, contrary to previous studies we find no evidence that recent immigrant cohorts are experiencing lower earnings growth. The second study examines immigrants’ job instability. We find that foreign-born men, particularly those who are undocumented, were at higher risk of losing their job and becoming involuntarily underemployed during the Great Recession even after controlling for demographic factors and job characteristics.

Andrés Villarreal, University of Maryland

4240 Public Affairs Bldg

Immigrants’ Economic Assimilation: Evidence from Matched Administrative Records

Immigrants’ ability to succeed in the labor market and achieve economic parity with natives has significant long-term implications for their well-being and that of their children. In this talk I will present findings from two studies examining immigrants’ economic assimilation using a dataset that links respondents of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to their individual tax records. The first study examines the lifetime earnings trajectories of immigrants and measures the extent and speed with which they are able to reduce the earnings gap with natives. Findings from this study address key debates regarding ethnoracial and cohort differences in immigrants’ earnings trajectories. First, we find a racially differentiated pattern of earnings assimilation: black and Hispanic immigrants are less able to catch up with native whites’ earnings compared to white and Asian immigrants, but they are almost able to reach earnings parity with natives of their same race and ethnicity. Second, contrary to previous studies we find no evidence that recent immigrant cohorts are experiencing lower earnings growth. The second study examines immigrants’ job instability. We find that foreign-born men, particularly those who are undocumented, were at higher risk of losing their job and becoming involuntarily underemployed during the Great Recession even after controlling for demographic factors and job characteristics.

Matt Harding, UC Irvine

CCPR Seminar Room 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Small steps with Big Data: Using Machine Learning in Resource Economics

This talk looks at how recent developments in Big Data and Machine Learning are being used in conjunction with randomized controlled trials and large population level program evaluations to design, implement and measure efforts to change consumer behavior. We will explore the role played by very detailed consumption data (often at 15 minute intervals), as well as recent techniques such as deep learning to help us better understand individual and population behaviors, and which insights from behavioral sciences are effective at changing behaviors in areas such as energy conservation and efficiency.

Eloise Kaizar, Ohio State University

Eloise Kaizar, Ohio State University Randomized controlled trials are often thought to provide definitive evidence on the magnitude of treatment effects. But because treatment modifiers may have a different distribution in a real world population than among trial participants, trial results may not directly reflect the average treatment effect that would follow real world adoption […]

Alan Murray, UC Santa Barbara

CCPR Seminar Room 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Population Vulnerability and Spatial Analytics

There has been a transition from population studies that were relatively data poor to the present day where digital data is plentiful on many fronts. The “Smart City” is fed by sources of information coming from all directions, where sensors observe things about the movement of vehicles and people, infrastructure conditions, air quality, weather, etc. The challenge is to make use of this digital data, and this is precisely the value added offered by a range of big data spatial analytics. This paper examines aspects of population vulnerability, focusing on particular types of risks and hazards in urban areas.

Lunch Seminar with CEGA-EASST Fellows 3/14/19

4240 Public Affairs Bldg

Luskin School of Public Affairs and the California Center for Population Research Presents:Lunch Seminar with CEGA-EASST Fellows. Please RSVP here. March 14, 2019 12:30-1:30pm, Public Affairs Building Room 4240 Muthoni Ng'ang'a, PhD Candidate University of Nairobi "The Impact of Matching Female Lead Farmers to Female Small-holder Farmers on Agricultural Technology Adoption: Evidence from Kenya" In […]

Martha Bailey, University of Michigan

CCPR Seminar Room 4240 Public Affairs Building, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Prep School for Poor Kids: The Long-Run Impacts of Head Start on Human Capital and Economic Self-Sufficiency 

This paper evaluates the long-run effects of Head Start using large-scale, restricted 2000-2013 Census-ACS data linked to date and place of birth in the SSA’s Numident file. Using the county-level rollout of Head Start between 1965 and 1980 and state age-eligibility cutoffs for school entry, we find that participation in Head Start is associated with increases in adult human capital and economic self-sufficiency, including a 0.29-year increase in schooling, a 2.1-percent increase in high-school completion, an 8.7-percent increase in college enrollment, and a 19-percent increase in college completion. These estimates imply sizable, longterm returns to investing in large-scale preschool programs.