"The political context and infant health in the United States"
Florencia Torche, Stanford University
Abstract: Political factors could have substantial consequences for the health and wellbeing of populations. In the United States, an important political factor is the party of the president. The two main parties differ in their ideologies and policy agendas, and these differences have sharpened since the 1960s. We examine the effect of prenatal exposure to the political party in office at the national level (president’s party) and the state level (governor’s party) on infant health between 1971 and 2018, considering the heterogeneity and timing of these effects. Fixed effects models show a beneficial effect of a Democratic president but no effect of a Democratic governor on birth outcomes. The benefit of in-utero exposure to a Democratic president is much stronger for Black infants than White infants. The effect of the president’s party does not materialize immediately after the inauguration. Rather, it takes approximately two years to fully emerge, and it remains elevated until the end of the party’s tenure in office. The effect is robust across specifications and only partially mediated by a battery of measurable social policies. Our findings suggest that the party in power is an important determinant of infant health, particularly among vulnerable populations.

"Challenges with Using Simulation Models to Plan and Refine COVID Testing for High-risk Populations"
Sanjay Basu, Harvard University
Abstract: Simulations models are frequently used during infectious disease outbreaks to guide policy and practice. This talk will discuss the use and refinement of COVID simulation models to help develop a testing network, define testing plans and refine them for high-risk populations--including homeless shelters, nursing homes, meat-packing plants, and similar congregate worksites--and address limitations and uncertainties presented by those models that were informed by implementation of their results.

Bio: Sanjay Basu, MD, PhD, is a primary care physician at Tenderloin Health Services—an integrated primary care, behavioral health, and substance use treatment clinic in San Francisco—and Director of Research at Collective Health.

"How Deep is the COVID-19 Recession? Evidence from Kenya and Beyond"
Edward Miguel, UC Berkeley
Abstract: Despite numerous journalistic accounts, systematic quantitative evidence on the evolution of economic conditions during the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic remains scarce for most low and middle income countries, in part due to the limitations of official economic statistics in environments with large informal sectors and subsistence agriculture. I will focus on novel evidence from a detailed and large-scale panel data collection effort in rural Kenya, documenting the evolution of living standards over time as well as the effects of an earlier cash transfer program. I also discuss results from over 30,000 respondents in an ensemble of 16 original household survey samples collected in nine countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The data documents declines in employment and income across socioeconomic strata beginning in March 2020, resulting in widespread food insecurity and the risk of persistent adverse effects, especially among children and other vulnerable groups.
Bio: Prof. Miguel's research focus is African economic development, including work on the economic causes and consequences of violence; the impact of ethnic divisions on local collective action; interactions between health, education, environment, and productivity for the poor; and methods for transparent social science research.