"Restless Denominators"  

Abstract: This paper explores how denominators are used, misused, and—especially—how often they are missing, and to what effects. The paper makes three arguments. First, that denominators are essential in domains far beyond the quantitative disciplines that presently attend to them. In ethnography, in practical politics, in cultural studies, in everyday decision-making, we need to think much more about the pools of possible chances out of which emerge the events we observe. Second, denominators in the social sciences are much more intently theoretical objects than their usual treatment suggests, both in the sense that populations are not naturally bounded in the ways that many statistics imply, and in the sense that people do not merely find themselves randomly in certain populations facing certain risks, but rather participate in a variety of ways in their location. Finally, I argue that a classical demographic way of thinking about the denominator—as exposure to risk—offers an elegant way of integrating contemporary theory about uncertainty, agency, and habitus into formal quantitative research.

Vimeo Podcast

"Thirty-Five Years Later: Long-Term Impacts of the Matlab Maternal and Child Health Program on Migration and Labor Market Outcomes"

Abstract: Despite global proliferation of reproductive health and family planning programs, little is known about their long‐term effects. This talk introduces a project that provides causal evidence on the impact of the Matlab Maternal and Child Health and Family Planning Program (MCH‐FP) in Bangladesh, over thirty‐five years after it began. The Matlab Health and Socioeconomic Survey 2 (MHSS2) collected surveys and objective tests from a sample of 36,000 participants, including beneficiaries and their descendants, with followup of ~90% of migrants living outside the study area or abroad. I introduce the larger study in the context of evaluating MCH/FP program impacts on migration and labor market success. To the extent that family planning reduced competition for resources, the program may discourage migration among treated populations. However, to the extent that child health services increased human capital, treated individuals may be better positioned to migrate successfully. The results illustrate the importance of intensive migrant followup for reducing attrition bias.

"Health Equity in Family Planning and Family Planning Care: Putting the Focus back on Women"

Abstract: Differences in contraceptive use and unintended pregnancy by race/ethnicity are well described. Interpretation of these differences, and how they relate to the desire to achieve health equity, is complex due to the nature of reproduction, including the personal, social and historical context in which reproductive and contraceptive decisions are made. Lack of attention to these contextual factors has the potential to interfere with the ultimate goal of optimizing women’s reproductive health and to exacerbate health inequities. This talk will review data regarding women’s reproductive outcomes and how they vary by their sociodemographic characteristics, and discuss conventional approaches in both public health efforts and clinical family planning care to thinking about and responding to these data. I will then make the case for a woman-centered approach that focuses on individual’s preferences and conceptualizations of reproductive health as the best strategy to meet women’s needs and promote health equity.

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"Social Network Influences on and for Behavior Change"

Abstract: In this presentation, Valente will show how social networks influence behaviors across a wide variety of applications.  Recent research on the diffusion of innovations will also be presented along with results from the study of the diffusion of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC).  Models for how social networks can be used for program implementation and network interventions will also be detailed.

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"Precarious employment and fertility: Insights from Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”"

Abstract: In this paper, we examine relationships between precarious employment and fertility. We focus on Japan, a country characterized by a prolonged economic downturn, significant increases in both unemployment and non-standard employment, a strong link between marriage and childbearing, and pronounced gender differences in economic roles and opportunities. Analyses of retrospective employment, marriage, and fertility data for the period 1990-2007 indicate that changing employment circumstances for men are associated with lower levels of marriage while changes for women are associated with higher levels of marital fertility. These two offsetting relationships combine to limit the overall association between changes in employment circumstances and declining fertility. Results of counterfactual standardization analyses suggest that Japan’s total fertility rate (TFR) would have been slightly lower than observed if aggregate- and individual-level employment conditions had remained unchanged from the 1980s. We discuss the implications of these results in light of ongoing policy discussions about fertility promotion and academic debates about the changing nature of gender relations within the family.

"Race Matters: Income Inequality and Mobility from 2000 to 2013"

Abstract: Using unique linked Internal Revenue Service and U.S. Census Bureau data matched at the individual level, we examine the differences in levels and trends for income inequality across racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Our data span 2000 to 2013, a period including the Great Recession, and will thus inform us on how financial crises affect inequality for important sub-groups of Americans. Previous research has focused on the increasing concentration of income and assets in the top decile of tax filers; this analysis will provide information on the entire distribution of income by decile, highlighting the circumstances of those at the lower end of the distribution as well. Because our data include both administrative and census data, our research is the first to provide detailed income and wage inequality information for racial and ethnic groups. Finally, we focus on short-run measures of mobility and document this measure over the decade and post-Great Recession era.

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"Measuring neighborhoods in the new data economy."

Abstract:  The data economy in the United States has changed dramatically in the past 5-10 years.  Naively one might argue that this new data economy holds particular promise for academics, because revolutions in science are often preceded by revolutions in measurement.   But for social scientists who study cities in the United States these changes are mixed.  The new data economy is complex complicates the study of neighborhoods.  In this talk I'll describe one such complication - the replacement of the long form of the decennial census with the American Community Survey in 2010.  The ACS produces estimates for thousands of variables at a variety of geographic scales.  However, estimates from the ACS are terribly imprecise, for many policy relevant variables ACS estimates are almost unusable.  In this talk I’ll describe the quality of the ACS and use its shortcomings to motivate a discussion of changing the way we measure neighborhoods.  Rather than just talk about alternatives I’ll present results from two novel computational methods that leverage new ways of thinking about the measurement of neighborhoods.  One of these methods can be used to process existing public domain ACS estimates to dramatically reduce the margin of error.

"Community Norms, Collective Practices, and Partner Violence against Women in Bangladesh"

Study 1: Child marriage, before age 18, is a collective practice reflecting institutionalized male dominance and is a risk factor for intimate partner violence (IPV) against women. Worldwide, Bangladesh has the highest prevalence of IPV and very early child marriage, before age 15. How the community prevalence of very early child marriage influences a woman’s risk of IPV is unknown. Using panel data (2013–2014) from 3,355 women first married 4–12 years prior in 77 Bangladeshi villages, we tested the protective effect of a woman’s later first marriage (age 18 or older), the adverse effect of a higher village prevalence of very early child marriage, and whether any protective effect of a woman’s later first marriage was diminished or reversed where very early child marriage was more prevalent, suggesting that later marriage in such communities evokes violent backlash. Almost half (44.5%) of women reported incident physical IPV, and most (78.9%) had married before age 18. At the village-level, the incidence of physical IPV ranged from 11.4% to 75.0%, and the mean age at first marriage ranged from 14.8 to 18.0 years. The mean village-level prevalence of very early child marriage was 20.3% and ranged from 3.9% to 51.9%. In main-effects models, marrying at 18 or later protected against physical IPV, and more prevalent very early child marriage (village % married before age 15) was a risk factor. The interaction of individual later marriage and village very early child marriage prevalence was positive; thus, the likely protective effect of marrying later was negated in villages where very early child marriage was prevalent. Collectively reducing very early child marriage may be needed to protect women from IPV.

Study 2: Men’s perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV) is common, but its multilevel determinants are understudied. Using a probability sample of 570 married men 18–34 years in 50 urban and 62 rural communities in the Bangladesh survey of the 2011 UN Multi-Country Study of Men and Violence, we tested for (a) a positive relationship of more equitable community gender norms among senior men (n=938; married, 35-49 years) and (b) a negative relationship of a junior man’s greater exposure to childhood violence with his lifetime rate of physical IPV perpetration (n=570; married, 18–34 years). We also tested whether more equitable community gender norms mitigated the rate of physical IPV perpetration associated with more childhood exposure to violence. Among younger married men, 50% reportedly ever perpetrated physical IPV, the mean lifetime number of physical IPV types perpetrated was 1.1 (SD 1.3) out of 5.0 listed. A majority (64%) reported childhood exposure to violence. In multilevel Poisson models, a man with more childhood exposure to violence had a higher log rate (Est. 0.31, SE 0.04, p<.001) and a man living amidst the most equitable gender norms had a lower log rate (Est. -0.52, SE 0.19, p<.01) of perpetrating physical IPV; however, no significant cross-level interaction was observed. Interventions that address the trauma of childhood violence and promote more equitable community gender norms may be needed to mitigate IPV perpetration by younger men.

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Magne Mogstad Speaker canceled due to unavoidable circumstances.

Please join us to hear our residents interesting research and give feedback for their upcoming PAA presentations.

Schedule:

• 12:00 - 12:20pm – Sung S. Park “Changing Times and Places: First Home Leaving Among Late Baby Boomers and Early Millennials during the Transition to Adulthood”

• 12:20 - 12:40pm – Di Liang, “The Effects of Passive Urbanization on Children’s Family Support for Rural Elders in China”

• 12:40 - 1:00pm – Karra Greenberg, "Race, Socioeconomic Status, and Depressive Symptoms: The Role of Goal-Striving Stress"

• 1:00 – 1:20pm – Ashley Gromis, “Explaining the Spatial Clustering of Non-Medical Exemptions from School Vaccination Requirements”

"Race, Class and Affirmative Action"

Abstract: This book-length manuscript (forthcoming by the Russell Sage Foundation in the Fall 2015) evaluates the ability of class-based affirmative action to promote the social and economic mobility of disadvantaged populations and boost diversity at selective postsecondary institutions, as compared with race-based policy. The book draws from within- and between-country comparisons of several prototypes of affirmative action policy. She uses the United States as a case study of race-based preferences, and Israel as a case study of class-based preferences. For each country she compares the model that has actually been implemented to a simulated scenario of the alternative policy type. The overarching goal of this book is to develop new, and more global insights about the potential of race-neutral public policy to promote equality in higher education.

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"Self-reported racial identity, genomic ancestry, and health disparities in Brazil: an exploratory study"

Abstract: Health disparities based on skin color/racial identification are present in many societies. In Brazil, studies have shown that people who describe their skin color as other than white (e.g. mixed, black, and/or indigenous) are more likely to report discrimination, are less likely to receive some types of health services, experience higher mortality, and have higher rates of some negative health behaviors. But how should we interpret these disparities given Brazil’s complex, fluid, and changing system of ethnoracial classification and racial identity? This study explores the congruence between genome-wide measures of ancestry and self-reported ethnoracial identify in Brazil and assesses their relationship with 4 health outcomes with distinct etiologies: self-rated health, hypertension, complications from Chagas disease, and all-cause mortality. Preliminary results are discussed in terms of implications for measuring and addressing such disparities in a dynamic multiracial society.

“Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Awareness, Attitudes and Uptake Among Young Gay, Bisexual and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men (MSM) in California.”

Abstract: Young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in the United States (US) continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV with large racial/ethnic disparities among African-Americans and Latinos. The World Health Organization now recommends that all people at substantial risk of HIV should be offered pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). While PrEP awareness has generally increased, actual PrEP usage among MSM has been limited. Little is known about PrEP awareness, attitudes, and uptake among racially and ethnically diverse YMSM.

"The Death of the American Dream?"

Abstract: Whenever an election rolls around, we can count on dire warnings that the American Dream is under threat, that hard work and talent are no longer guarantees of success, and that what now matters most is winning the “birth lottery” and being raised by rich parents. But are these dire warnings true? Can a child born into a middle-class family expect to earn much more than a child born into a poor family? What about a child born into the one percent? Does that translate into a huge boon to the child’s earnings? Drawing on new tax-return data, the hard facts about social mobility in the U.S. are presented, with a special focus on differences in the mobility opportunities of boys and girls.

*Co-sponsored with the Dept. of Sociology & Inequality Working Group

"The Relationship between Income and Life Expectancy: Local Area Variation in the United States, 2001-2014"

Abstract: We examine inequality in life expectancy using 1.4 billion anonymous earnings and mortality records covering the U.S. population from 1999-2014. We present four main findings. First, higher income is associated with greater longevity throughout the income distribution. The richest 1% of American men live 15 years longer than the poorest 1%, while the richest 1% of American women live 10 years longer than the poorest 1%. Second, inequality in life expectancy has increased in recent years at the national level. From 2001-2014, the richest 5% of Americans gained approximately 3 years in longevity, but the poorest 5% experienced no gains. Third, life expectancy varies substantially across areas, especially for low-income individuals. Life expectancy varies by approximately 5 years between the areas with the highest and lowest longevity. Trends in life expectancy varied substantially across areas as well, ranging from gains of more than 4 years between 2001 and 2014, to losses of more than 2 years. Fourth, differences in life expectancy across areas for low-income individuals are highly correlated with differences in health behaviors such as smoking, obesity and exercise. In contrast, life expectancy for low-income Americans is not significantly correlated with measures of the quantity and quality of medical care, local income inequality, residential segregation, and labor market conditions. Low-income individuals tend to live the longest (and have the most healthful behaviors) in affluent cities with highly educated populations and high levels of government expenditures.

"Does Competition Eliminate Discrimination? Evidence from the Commercial Sex Market in Singapore"

Abstract: The street sex worker market in Geylang, Singapore is a highly competitive market in which clients can search legally at negligible cost, making it ideal for testing Diamond's hypothesis regarding search and monopoly pricing. As Diamond predicts, price discrimination survives in this market. Despite an excess supply of workers, but consistent with their self-reported attitudes and beliefs, sex workers charge Caucasians (Bangladeshis) more (less), based on perceived willingness to pay, and are more (less) likely to approach and reach an agreement with them. Consistent with taste discrimination, they avoid Indians, charge more and reach an agreement with them less frequently.

"How the Motherhood Penalty Varies by Wage, Cognitive Skill, and Race: A Reassessment"
*Co-sponsored with the Family Working Group.

Abstract: Motherhood reduces women’s wages. Is the size of this penalty largest among the most or least advantaged women? Two 2010 papers using the same panel data suggest opposite answers to this question. With and without controls for years of employment experience, Wilde et al. find higher motherhood wage penalties for those with higher cognitive skill, while Budig and Hodges find higher penalties for women at lower wage levels. Taken together, these findings are puzzling, because women with higher cognitive skills typically have higher wages. Using unconditional quantile regression, panel data, and fixed effects, we assess how penalties vary by intersections of skill, wage level, and race. We find that the most advantaged women—white women with high cognitive skills and high wages—experience the highest total proportionate penalties, estimated to include effects mediated through experience. Although this group has the most continuous experience, their high returns to experience make even the small amounts of time they typically take out of employment for child rearing costly. Penalties net of experience, which might represent employer discrimination or effects of motherhood on job performance, do not differ consistently by race, skill, or wage; they afflict advantaged and disadvantaged women approximately equally.